Yemeni Scuds

Explain to me again about the Axis of Evil® and the War on Terror®.

One of the most bizarre episodes in the last two weeks has been the mysterious affair of the Yemeni Scuds. (For some background, see articles here). For those of you who missed this, let me recap the high points.

North Korea, a charter member of the Axis of Evil®, is a major source of missile technology. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld recently termed Pyongyang the world's "single largest proliferator" of missile technology. Weapons sales are perhaps North Korea's sole source of foreign currency. In 1992, 92 countries signed the Missile Control Technology Regime (MCTR), a treaty which binds states not to export surface-to-surface missiles or their components. The signatories include the US, all EU countries, Russia, Iraq, Iran, and China. Yemen, North Korea, and Israel are notable exceptions. All Western missile producers have stopped selling missiles to developing nations, making North Korea the sole remaining source.

The US, during the Clinton administration, did not stand idly by. Even though Pyongyang is entitled under international law to sell its weapons, and Yemen to buy them, Washington punished North Korea's missile sales. U.S. sanctions were put on North Korean companies seven times since 1992 for violations of the MCTR. Washington has also sanctioned only non-signatories who violated the treaty's terms.

North Korea also caused a major diplomatic row this month when the government revealed that they had a clandestine nuclear program. This was actually known as early as 1992. In fact, Ex-President Clinton recently revealed that, in 1994 in response to North Korea's nuclear program, "We actually drew up plans to attack North Korea and destroy their reactors, and we told them we would attack unless they ended their nuclear program." Subsequently, ex-President Carter negotiated a treaty between the North Koreans and the US and other nations to discontinue their nuclear program in return for oil supplies and the development of two light-water reactors. As part of that treaty, the IAEA placed seals on the North Korean's reprocessing plant and installed cameras to monitor activity at other reactor sites.

The US-led consortium constructing the reactors was already behind schedule when Mr. Bush took office but his administration stopped all further work on the promised reactors. No reason was formally given, but suspicions about North Korean cheating on the treaty were voiced. In response, the North Koreans went public with their nuclear program. The US demanded the DRNK shut down this program and allow inspectors, stopping all oil supplies until the North Koreans relented. In response, the administration is now surprised when the North Koreans renege on the treaty and take steps to overtly resume their nuclear development.

It is in this context that the NSA reported on 12/2 that the North Korean vessel So San left the port of Nampo with Scud missiles and other components including missile fuel chemicals. The vessel, flying no flags and with its name painted over, was stopped, boarded, and seized by the Spanish Navy in the Arabian Sea on 12/11. Hidden under a shipment of cement, were the 15 Scuds. After two days on frenzied consultation, the Bush Administration allowed the shipment to continue and they Scuds were later unloaded in Yemen. The Yemeni government stated that they has rightfully bought the missiles. They further stated that they were for the Yemeni Army and not for resale.

The Scud, as you know, is a medium range ground-to-ground missile with a range of about 400 nautical miles. During the last Iraq war, these missiles reached Israel from Iraq. It is capable of carrying a variety of warheads, including nuclear. The range of a Scud launched from Yemen is shown below.

This circle includes Nairobi (not shown), Khartoum, and Riyadh. One could ask, what does Yemen need Scuds for, beside for resale. Their border disputes with Saudi Arabia have been settled. Perhaps, the subtle Bush plan is to strengthen Yemen to provide a threat to Saudi Arabia. After Iraq in reduced and Saudi Arabia is next in the sights, a second front may be useful.

However, previously, the Bush Administration refused to license the sale of even desktop computers to Yemen, insisting they had "dual use" potential. Now, the Yemenis, home of Bin Laden, site of attacks on the USS Cole and the French tanker, hiding place of Osama and Al Queda, is to be trusted with these offensive weapons. The idiocy of this decision has been pointed out by the Weekly Standard and William Safire. Even these usual apologists for the Bushies can find no explanation for the cluelessness and hypocrisy of this decision. Perhaps it's true. The Mayberry Machiavellis have no policy. All decisions are political and, clearly, Karl Rove is out of his element in foreign affairs.

If any of you can explain this to me, don't hesitate to write.

Posted by Gordon at December 23, 2002 07:16 PM | E-mail Author | Back to main page